While Americans enjoyed their July 4th celebrations with fireworks, the U.K. was dealing with political explosions. The Labour Party, under Keir Starmer, won a decisive victory in the general election, with Starmer becoming Prime Minister. For those who don’t keep up with British politics, this could start a headache for both the winning Labour and the defeated Tories.
Despite Labour’s triumph, Starmer faces potential trouble within his party. With 412 Members of Parliament (MPs), well over the 326 needed for a majority, there will be demands to push the party further left. It’s like they can’t help themselves. Remember, it was only a few years ago when Jeremy Corbyn made Labour unelectable with his wild promises and leniency towards antisemitism. Starmer has tirelessly moved the party back to the center, even kicking Corbyn out. Yet, Corbyn still managed to get re-elected as an independent M.P.
Starmer has pledged not to raise taxes and has aligned himself with Tony Blair’s more centrist views. But now, with the unions demanding higher wages for public sector workers and Muslim supporters calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, Starmer’s centrist stance will be under constant attack. The unions, the backbone of the Labour Party, will not stay silent about their demands. Starmer must remind his M.P.s that Labour won with just 33.7% of the national vote, a stark reminder that their mandate isn’t as solid as it seems.
Now, let’s talk about the Tories. They suffered a historic defeat, losing more seats than any British political party in general elections. Yet, it could have been worse. Pre-election polls had predicted they might end up with fewer than 100 seats, so there’s a small silver lining. Rishi Sunak, the outgoing Prime Minister, stepped down following this debacle, leaving a small group of M.P.s to regroup and scrutinize the new government.
The Tories can look to the example of Liz Truss, who lost her seat by a mere 630 votes, while Reform U.K. candidates, who siphoned off nearly 10,000 votes, played spoiler. This scenario repeated across the country, particularly in the North, where Brexit was a significant issue. Disenchanted voters who supported the Conservatives in 2019 turned to Reform U.K. this time, splitting the vote and handing victories to Labour.
This election math suggests that a future alliance between the Conservatives and Reform U.K. might be the only way to regain power. Reform U.K., led by Nigel Farage, who finally won a seat in Parliament on his eighth try, is seen as a far-right party by some. However, most of their 4.1 million voters aren’t extremists; they’re just fed up with the lack of tangible benefits from Brexit, uncontrolled immigration, and rising energy bills due to the “net zero” agenda pushed by Conservative elites.
The voters sent explicit messages to both parties. Labor needs to avoid the pitfalls of Corbyn-style socialism. In contrast, the Conservatives need to develop better policies on immigration and Brexit and reclaim their reputation for economic stewardship. Truss’s departure could be beneficial in removing a significant talking point Labour has used against the Tories.
Although the Tories have a challenging path to regain the majority, the combined votes for Reform and the Conservatives outnumbered Labour’s. This suggests there’s still a viable route back to power if they can effectively align their strategies and address voters’ concerns.
While Labour’s victory might seem like a landslide, it comes with significant internal and external challenges for Starmer. Similarly, despite their defeat, the Tories have a roadmap for recovery if they can unify their base and listen to the electorate. The following general election could see a very different political landscape if either party heeds the messages sent by voters this time.
