Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson has a warning for the GOP: Elon Musk’s new political outfit, the “America Party,” may not be grabbing headlines—yet—but it’s already threatening the GOP’s narrow midterm advantage in swing districts.

Speaking Monday on CNN’s “The Arena,” Anderson explained that while Republicans still hold a slight lead when voters are asked to choose between the GOP or Democrats, that edge vanishes the moment Musk’s third-party option is added into polling scenarios. “Suddenly, Republicans’ lead is gone,” she said bluntly. “This is a game of inches to try to win the House or hang on to the Senate.”

Musk’s venture, announced just weeks ago, brands itself as a response to what he calls a corrupt, single-party system in Washington. “When it comes to bankrupting the country with waste and graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy,” Musk wrote when unveiling the party. While still in its infancy, the America Party already appears to be making inroads with disaffected voters—particularly those who’ve grown weary of both traditional Republicans and Democrats.

Anderson pointed out that while support for the new party remains relatively low in a vacuum, its real impact comes from siphoning off just enough votes from Republicans to change the outcome in close races. “You don’t want to lose any portion of your base,” she emphasized, especially in a midterm environment where turnout is the deciding factor.

This isn’t just a theoretical concern. New data from Pew Research shows Trump made significant 2024 gains with Latino, Black, and Asian voters, as well as younger Americans—groups many Republicans assumed were out of reach. Anderson herself admitted in June that she had once feared Trump would torch the party’s efforts to win over diverse demographics. “Eight years ago I was completely hair-on-fire… I thought it was going to be unrecoverable,” she said. Now, the GOP has clawed its way into surprising territory with those groups.

But all that momentum could be jeopardized if conservative-leaning independents or Trump-skeptical Republicans shift their support toward Musk’s brand of populism instead of staying in the GOP fold. Anderson made clear that while these voters are unlikely to switch sides and vote Democrat, even sitting out the election or choosing a third-party candidate could be disastrous for the GOP’s midterm math.

Anderson isn’t alone in sounding the alarm. Other Republican strategists have quietly voiced concern that Musk’s initiative, while still new, could pose a spoiler threat in the same way Ross Perot or Ralph Nader did in decades past. And while Musk may not field hundreds of candidates this cycle, even a few high-profile endorsements or well-funded independents could prove enough to shake up close contests in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

Adding fuel to the fire, Democrats are already eyeing Musk’s America Party as a potential wedge they can exploit. With Musk’s brand carrying massive sway online and among younger voters, his mere presence in the political arena could distract from President Trump’s policy message and split the anti-left coalition just enough to give Democrats an opening.

Anderson’s takeaway is stark: Republicans must not underestimate the damage even a fledgling third party can do in a divided electorate. “Base turnout is everything in midterms,” she said. “Even small shifts can swing the outcome.”

With the 2026 elections creeping closer, Musk’s America Party may remain a wildcard—but one the GOP ignores at its own peril.