India and Pakistan are moving dangerously closer to open conflict following a brutal terrorist attack that left 26 people dead and dozens more injured in the Kashmir region earlier this week. The attack, carried out in the tourist town of Pahalgam, reportedly targeted Hindu men while allowing Muslim women and children to flee, further inflaming religious and national tensions.

The separatist group Kashmir Resistance claimed responsibility, but Indian officials point to the Pakistan-based terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (LT) as the real force behind the slaughter. Prime Minister Narendra Modi wasted no time issuing a stark warning to the world: “India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers.”

Modi’s statement made clear that India holds Pakistan’s military and intelligence services responsible for enabling terror groups that operate across the border. While skirmishes and accusations between the two countries are not new, this escalation feels different — and far more dangerous.

Within days, both India and Pakistan expelled each other’s diplomats, suspended visa services, and severed cross-border trade. Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft, and India moved swiftly to suspend the historic Indus Waters Treaty, a move some in Islamabad called an “act of war.” Pakistan’s leaders responded with a threat of their own, vowing that the Indus River would remain theirs, “whether water flows or blood.”

The normally ceremonial “Beating Retreat” ceremony at the Attari-Wagah border — a daily military ritual meant to symbolize ongoing relations despite tensions — has been canceled. Both governments have also ordered visa holders from the opposing nation to leave immediately.

In a provocative move, India deployed its lone aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, to the Arabian Sea, though it quickly returned to port after a reported fire in one of its galleys. While the Indian government insists the return was routine, some observers wonder if it was a signal that India is still calibrating its next moves carefully.

Historically, India and Pakistan have fought four wars:

• First Indo-Pakistan War (1947-1948): A battle over Kashmir, ending in a UN-brokered ceasefire.

• Second Indo-Pakistan War (1965): A large-scale conflict sparked by Pakistan’s infiltration attempts.

• Third Indo-Pakistan War (1971): Resulted in the creation of Bangladesh and a major defeat for Pakistan.

• Kargil War (1999): Pakistan-backed forces infiltrated Indian territory before being pushed back.

A fifth war now looms on the horizon — and with it, the specter of nuclear catastrophe.

Both countries possess nuclear arsenals, with Pakistan estimated to have 170 nuclear warheads and India around 172. Critically, Pakistan maintains a “first use” policy, meaning it could resort to nuclear weapons early if it faces defeat in a conventional war. India, by contrast, pledges no first use but promises devastating retaliation if attacked with nuclear weapons.

Adding to the volatility, Pakistan’s stockpile includes tactical nuclear weapons designed for use on the battlefield — a dangerous temptation if its military faces collapse against a larger, more powerful Indian force.

Despite the grim outlook, there are still reasons to hope that full-scale war can be avoided. India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty was a major escalation, but so far, neither side has entirely broken diplomatic channels. While rhetoric is heating up, actual military deployments remain limited.

If conflict does break out, experts fear it could quickly spiral out of control. Given the geography of the region, even a limited nuclear exchange could result in millions of deaths and long-lasting environmental devastation across South Asia and beyond.

The coming days are critical. The world is watching — and praying — that India and Pakistan can back away from the abyss before it’s too late.