Former FBI agent Maureen O'Connell went on SiriusXM's The Megyn Kelly Show on Tuesday and said something that made Kelly's jaw hit the desk. She's 75 percent confident that investigators are closing in on the masked figure known as "porch guy" — the man caught on Nancy Guthrie's Google Nest doorbell camera the night the 84-year-old disappeared from her Tucson, Arizona home on February 1.

That was nearly five months ago. And until now, we've had almost nothing.

"I think they're close right now to pulling this case together," O'Connell told Kelly. "I think they're getting close to the porch guy. And when they get the porch guy, the floodgates shall swing open."

Kelly's response was immediate. "What?!" she said. "That is big news!" And she's right. In a case that has produced far more questions than answers since February, a retired FBI agent publicly putting a 75 percent confidence number on an imminent identification is the most concrete thing anyone has said on the record.

Nancy Guthrie is the mother of NBC Today host Savannah Guthrie. She vanished from her home in the middle of the night. The doorbell camera footage, recovered early in the investigation, shows an armed suspect wearing a ski mask, gloves, and a backpack tampering with the Nest camera. Investigators have been working from limited visible features — reportedly including eye shape — to narrow down the suspect's identity. DNA evidence collected from the scene has been sent to the FBI lab in Quantico for analysis.

Then there are the ransom notes. The first demanded $4 million in Bitcoin. A second note was emailed to media outlets six days after the disappearance, originating from the same IP address as the first. That second note contained details that only someone with access to Nancy Guthrie would know — specifics about her Apple Watch placement and what she was wearing. It also included what the author described as an "apology" for her "inadvertent death" and claimed she was "buried in nature," offering to return her body for payment.

Savannah Guthrie has said publicly that she "tend to believe those are real."

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos has emphasized why the investigation has moved at what feels like a glacial pace. DNA analysis is complex. Building a case that holds up in court requires thoroughness over speed. He's stressed the importance of avoiding a wrongful arrest — which is the right instinct, even when public frustration is running high. You don't get a second shot at prosecuting something like this.

But O'Connell's comments suggest that the deliberate pace may finally be producing results. Quantico doesn't rush. They also don't miss much. If the DNA evidence lines up with whatever investigative leads have narrowed the "porch guy" pool, the identification could move quickly from there.

What's notable is where this news broke. Not on NBC, where Savannah Guthrie works and which has covered the case with understandable restraint given the family connection. Not from an official law enforcement press conference. It came from a former FBI agent sitting across from Megyn Kelly on satellite radio, putting a number on her confidence level that no official source has been willing to match.

That's not a criticism of NBC or the Pima County Sheriff's Office. Savannah Guthrie's network has to walk a line between journalism and family, and Nanos is right to keep his cards close. But it does explain why Kelly's show has become the go-to destination for developments in this case — she can push harder, ask the uncomfortable questions, and let sources like O'Connell speak freely without institutional constraints.

An 84-year-old woman was taken from her home in the middle of the night by someone who came prepared with a mask, gloves, a backpack, and a plan to disable the camera. The ransom notes suggest this wasn't random. The DNA is at Quantico. A former FBI agent says they're close.

Five months is a long time to wait for answers. If O'Connell's 75 percent holds, that wait may be almost over.